Expert Article Final

The Wizard of Odds

Practical strategies to win in poker

By Jordan Diamond



“All in,” you say, pushing your chips toward the middle of the table.


“You fool! I read Jordan Diamond’s article on poker strategies. I’ve done millions of calculations and simulations in my head; the probability of me winning is overwhelming.” Your buddy maniacally chuckles holding up this very article.


You both flip over your cards, and you have, in fact, lost. You rip the article out of their hands and exclaim:


“I’ll be back!” (cue intense music and Marvel’s intro animation).


By following the strategies explained here you can become the “Wizard of Odds” and a super poker player that no one wants to play against.


I am teaching you the Texas Hold’em variation of poker because it’s the most popular version played in casinos, professionally, and in a dimly lit gangster film. To become an ace in the poker world, I will explain the rules of the game, then describe two major strategies that, when combined, will become your super strategy.


Playing Poker

The object of the game is to create the best five-card hand.


The game is best played with at least four, maximum nine players. There is a winner of each round and how long you play is dependent on how much money you are willing to gamble. However, I would suggest ending the game if you or your friends consider betting your car or one of your kidneys.


Poker can feel like politics; there’s a lot of jargon. But the words, when defined, are easy to understand. Here are some terms to keep in mind:

• Dealer Button: Designates the player dealing out the cards. Position rotates clockwise each round. The last player to perform an action in each betting round
• Small/Big Blind: Positions that force a player to bet. Position rotates clockwise each round
• Call: Action to match a betted amount
• Raise: Action to increase the betted amount (typically must be at least double of previous bet)
• Fold: Action to exit the round
• Check: Action to not bet. Can only be used if no bets have been made. If a bet has been made before or after the player must call, raise, or fold
• Flop, Turn, & River: Sequence of community cards seen. The first three, fourth, and fifth cards respectively
• Pot: Total amount of money at stake in the round
  

For gameplay, here is the sequence of one round:

• Sitting in a circle at a table, players assign the dealer button, small blind, and big blind positions clockwise
• Dealer deals two cards face down to each player that they can see but are not visible to other players
• Betting begins. Each player has the option to call, raise, or fold (Remember those definitions?)
• Then there are community cards, which the dealer places face up on the table for all players to see
• The cards appear in this sequence:
• First, three cards (flop). Next round of betting with the same options as before except the extra option to “check”
• Next, one more card (turn). The next round of betting
• Then, one more card (river). The last round of betting
• Finally the players flip over their cards and the player with the best ranking hand wins the pot!

Here’s a handy chart of hand rankings from worst to best:

 

In poker, like in chess, knowing the rules and directions the pieces move can only get you so far. That’s why in practice, poker writer Dr. Tricia Carnder and I emphasize that you should aim to mix both the statistical and psychological aspects of poker in your strategy (Cardner).


Math Method

“I use Game Theory Optimal,” I say snobbishly.


Game Theory Optimal (GTO) is the statistical approach to poker. In his article on the subject, player Matthew Cluff , described it as playing “perfect poker” (Cluff, The Beginner’s Guide to GTO Poker). On a high level, if you play when you expect to win and fold when you expect to lose, in the long run you will make money. Here are a few tools from the theory to get you started:


Outs

First you need to calculate your probability of winning. The term “outs” stands for any card that can turn up on the board to make your hand stronger. There are four of each rank (2s, 3s, etc.) and thirteen of each suit (diamonds, club, etc.). In your head you would count the number of cards not seen that would make your hand better. Then you would divide this number by how many cards are left in the deck (total cards minus community cards minus your cards). You will compare this percent to your pot odds.


Pot Odds

Daniel Negréanu, one of the highest-grossing players in the world, explains Pot Odds in his Masterclass article as “the ratio between the size of the pot and the size of the bet” (Negréanu). Say the pot is $10 and your opponent bets $5. You now have to make the decision: is it worth me betting $5 to win $20 ($10 in the pot plus you and your opponent's bet of $5 each)? This ratio, 5/20 or 25%, is your pot odds.


If your probability of winning is higher than the pot odds, you call. If your expected chance of winning is less than the pot odds, you fold.


This is the case because when the probability of winning is greater than the pot odds, your hand is strong enough to put money in the pot. If the probability is lower, your hand is not good enough to earn the high return of the pot. These concepts work “in the long-run” in that if you follow this strategy, over time you would expect to have a positive return.

1. You might still lose. This theory requires that you play many, many...many times (and correctly!).
2. Game dynamics: any single card or player action can change your chances.

Alright, alright the math is over. You can breathe!


Mind Method

The psychological aspect of the game is explained well by Lady Gaga in her hit song “Poker Face.” The man she’s flirting with can’t get a good read on her interest because of her p-p-p-poker face. So try to stay stoic when using these concepts.


GTO is great, however we’re all dead in the long run. It is extremely difficult to play “perfect poker” and not let feelings or mood get in the way. Unless you’re a robot and fail your next reCATCHA test on Google, you will always be prone to human error. Your manipulation begins by thinking about your opponent’s styles and tendencies. Are they conservative, or a big risk taker? What were their previous actions?


Bluffing

When you bluff you are making a bet in hopes of having your opponent fold a better hand (Cluff, The Ultimate Poker Bluff Guide). If the player folds you win the pot, even though you would likely lose if they were to call. To be good at this yourself you should know some traits (“tells”) to look out for in your fellow players. Does your opponent look tense or confident? Are their eyes dilated? Typically, this happens when people have good cards (got sunglasses?).


Baiting

Like a worm on a fishing line, in baiting you make the opportunity to keep playing the hand irresistible. You make your opponent think “they have nothing!” Little do they know you have a hand that will give them nightmares. You could play it cool the whole round, or you can pretend as if the card you were hoping for never came up even though it did.


This “feel” for the game and for other players comes with time and practice. Using these thoughts in conjunction with the GTO strategy helps you overcome or exploit the human nature of players.


Get Gambling!

With these strategies in mind, take the chance and get to the fun. You can play for free with your friends or for high stakes at Monte Carlo. Playing poker is a gamble worth taking!

Works Cited

Cardner, Tricia. Psychology vs Solvers! Should You Play Your Opponent or Play the Cards?                    https://www.888poker.com/magazine/strategy/poker-psychology-vs-solvers.
Cluff, Matthew. The Beginner’s Guide to GTO Poker.https://www.888poker.com/magazine                    /strategy/beginners-guide-gto-poker.
---. The Ultimate Poker Bluff Guide. https://www.888poker.com/magazine/strategy/poker-              bluff.
Kenton, Will. Expected Value Definition, Formula, and Examples.                                                             https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/expected-                                                                             value.asp#:~:text=Expected%20value%20(EV)%20describes%20the,is%20used%20in%20scenario%20analyses.
Negréanu, Daniel. Poker 101: What Are Poker Odds? Learn How to Calculate Poker Odds and             How Odds Work. https://www.masterclass.com/articles/poker-101-what-are-poker-odds.
Walker, Greg. How To Calculate Expected Value - Boxes Method.                                                           https://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/mathematics/expected-value/calculate                            /#:~:text=To%20form%20our%20EV%20equation,add%20all%20the%20boxes%20together.&text=So%20the%20EV%20of%20calling,we%20win%20%243.03%20on%20average.